I’ve got about $25K, which is just about average, and I draw KK in the BB. Nice. first position folds, second calls ($1K), and third raises all-in short-stacked. Fold around to me, and I re-raise the pot (which puts me all-in) to ensure that I’m heads-up against the raiser.
Problem is, the guy in second position (who limped in, remember) calls all-in. I take back about $3,000, and the cards are turned:
ME: K♠ K♦
Number 2: A♣ J♠ (!)
Number 3: Q♣ Q♥
I’m feeling pretty good since I was expecting 2 to have AA. The flop comes, and a J hits, but so what? I’m still a huge favorite to win (huger, in fact, now that there are only two cards to come).
So what is the A♠ on the turn, is what.
Now, at this point I’m resigned to losing, but there are three spades on the board, so with the K♠ in my hand and the J♠ in Number 2’s hand, I’ve still got 9 outs. Right?
Obviously, I didn’t improve and got knocked out on the next hand by 88 when I went all-in with A5s against A8o.
Now, Two Dimes says that my chances of winning that second hand were less than 30%, whereas my chances of winning the KK hand were 58.17%. I’d be inclined to believe them, except they also claim that I had 10 outs going into the river:
pokenum -h kd ks - ac js - qc qh —2s jc 9s as
Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing As 9s 2s Jc
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kd 10 23.81 32 76.19 0 0.00 0.238
Js Ac 31 73.81 11 26.19 0 0.00 0.738
Qc Qh 1 2.38 41 97.62 0 0.00 0.024
I thought this might be because it was missing the J♠ in my opponent’s hand, except it correctly limits Queenie’s outs to one, since Q♠ would give me the winning flush. Any thoughts?
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