I may have been too quick in assuming that Kerry had the race sewn up. John Edwards’ unexpectedly strong second place finish in Wisconsin has made this a race again. Kerry is still the big favorite, but, in more than any other primary I know of, the key issue seems to be finding someone to beat Bush. At the end of the day, while I don’t really like Edwards’ trade policy (anti-free trade), he might match up with Bush better than Kerry because he is younger, more attractive, more passionate and more engaging than Kerry and, perhaps most importantly, a southerner. It is hard to see where any voter that would vote for Kerry over Bush would not also vote for Edwards, but it is easy to see that there might be voters, especially southerners distrustful of New England liberals, who would vote for Edwards but not Kerry.
This was my rational for predicting an Edwards win way back before Iowa, but it looked like Kerry’s momentum was going to keep Edwards from having time to have the two man race with Kerry he needed. Frankly, it still looks that way, but primaries can shift quickly and there is a chance that Edwards can pull of a stunner on Super Tuesday largely just on the argument that he is more electable.
Either way, this is great for the Democratic party. Both candidates are being, so far, positive regarding each other and they will now get a lot more coverage—to attack Bush—these next two weeks than if Kerry had won big in Wisconsin. If Kerry triumphs on Super Tuesday it just makes him that much stronger. If Edwards pulls out a shocker he could ride that momentum straight to the general election. The only way this is bad is if (1) the candidates go negative or (2) the race becomes so tight that a clear winner does not emerge before the convention (though this could be a good thing, it is simply hard to predict how that would play out).
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I may have been too quick in assuming that Kerry had the race sewn up. John Edwards’ unexpectedly strong second place finish in Wisconsin has made this a race again. Kerry is still the big favorite, but, in more than any other primary I know of, the key issue seems to be finding someone to beat Bush. At the end of the day, while I don’t really like Edwards’ trade policy (anti-free trade), he might match up with Bush better than Kerry because he is younger, more attractive, more passionate and more engaging than Kerry and, perhaps most importantly, a southerner. It is hard to see where any voter that would vote for Kerry over Bush would not also vote for Edwards, but it is easy to see that there might be voters, especially southerners distrustful of New England liberals, who would vote for Edwards but not Kerry.
This was my rational for predicting an Edwards win way back before Iowa, but it looked like Kerry’s momentum was going to keep Edwards from having time to have the two man race with Kerry he needed. Frankly, it still looks that way, but primaries can shift quickly and there is a chance that Edwards can pull of a stunner on Super Tuesday largely just on the argument that he is more electable.
Either way, this is great for the Democratic party. Both candidates are being, so far, positive regarding each other and they will now get a lot more coverage—to attack Bush—these next two weeks than if Kerry had won big in Wisconsin. If Kerry triumphs on Super Tuesday it just makes him that much stronger. If Edwards pulls out a shocker he could ride that momentum straight to the general election. The only way this is bad is if (1) the candidates go negative or (2) the race becomes so tight that a clear winner does not emerge before the convention (though this could be a good thing, it is simply hard to predict how that would play out).
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Whoa Nellie! Perhaps we have a race for the Democratic nomination after all.
