What're the Odds?asphnxma over at Riding the F-Train tells of a bad beat even worse than the one Pauly and I suffered at the hands of Mean Gene’s hammer.
According to Two Dimes, my AQs was only a very slight favorite against Pauly’s A8o and Mean Gene’s 72o (note: I made up the suits b/c I don’t recall what they were exactly, but that shouldn’t make a significant difference in the numbers):
pokenum -h ad qd - ac 8s - 7c 2d
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Qd 699211 51.01 609537 44.47 62006 4.52 0.532
8s Ac 279729 20.41 1029019 75.07 62006 4.52 0.226
7c 2d 329808 24.06 1035373 75.53 5573 0.41 0.242
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Qd 699211 51.01 609537 44.47 62006 4.52 0.532
8s Ac 279729 20.41 1029019 75.07 62006 4.52 0.226
7c 2d 329808 24.06 1035373 75.53 5573 0.41 0.242
Figuring my odds were better than that, but also knowing my odds would be much better heads up, I bet to try and get Mean Gene out. If Gene had noticed me, he says he would have folded, leaving me with this pretty little picture:
pokenum -h ad qd - ac 8s —7d 2c as
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing As 2c 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Qd 844 85.25 111 11.21 35 3.54 0.870
8s Ac 111 11.21 844 85.25 35 3.54 0.130
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing As 2c 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Qd 844 85.25 111 11.21 35 3.54 0.870
8s Ac 111 11.21 844 85.25 35 3.54 0.130
But, it was not to be, so instead this was the picture:
pokenum -h ad qd - ac 8s - 7c 2d —7d 2c as
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As 2c 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Qd 227 25.14 672 74.42 4 0.44 0.254
8s Ac 94 10.41 805 89.15 4 0.44 0.106
7c 2d 578 64.01 325 35.99 0 0.00 0.640
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As 2c 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Qd 227 25.14 672 74.42 4 0.44 0.254
8s Ac 94 10.41 805 89.15 4 0.44 0.106
7c 2d 578 64.01 325 35.99 0 0.00 0.640
So, Mean Gene becomes nearly a 2 to 1 favorite, and pulls of one of the most spectacular bad beats I’ve seen. But even pre-flop, Gene had almost 3 to 1 odds (where Pauly had closer to 4 to 1). Whereas asphnxma’s (fuck it, from now on he is simply Harold) QQs got beat by QJo, which was nearly a 6 to 1 dog—a much badder beat.
I mention this because it underscores the mathematics behind a fundamental tenet of poker: the more you know about the other hands, the more successful you will be. So don’t just look at your AK, or QQ, and bet the house—and don’t put someone else on, say, JJ pre-flop, and then keep it there when their actions suggest A2, A7, or—god forbid—72.
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