Wednesday, February 11, 2004

Ok, so Kerry will win, but should everyone drop out?
After today, it is a foregone conclusion that John Kerry will be the Democratic nominee. One commentator said that he is a lock unless we learn that he has been funneling nuclear secrets to Al Quaeda. I agree, except that if the source for that information is the CIA, his poll numbers might actually go up.
But, has Kerry won too easily? Ironically, John Edwards may be the best thing for John Kerry the next few weeks.
The only problem with a complete walkover is that the media is going to lose interest. Kerry is hot right now and he wants to keep that momentum as long as he can. But if there is no race, Kerry will get less coverage over the next couple of months and that means that he’ll have to spend money to stay on the radar screen. Howard Dean’s last stand (sort of) in Wisconsin will help for the next week. But I think Dean will be done after he gets clobbered in Wisconsin.
That leaves Edwards. Clark is out and the rest of the candidates are jokes. If Edwards stays, as he has been largely throughout, positive in his campaigning, Kerry is probably better off if Edwards can stay close enough to him to pass the laugh test. It will keep the media hungry and talking about a Super Tuesday showdown. Kerry can still just attack Bush and get coverage and then Kerry can go out and win Super Tuesday in a landslide and get yet another big bump. But how big of a story Kerry’s Super Tuesday landslide is (because that is a given) will probably depend more on Edwards than Kerry.
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Ok, so Kerry will win, but should everyone drop out?
After today, it is a foregone conclusion that John Kerry will be the Democratic nominee. One commentator said that he is a lock unless we learn that he has been funneling nuclear secrets to Al Quaeda. I agree, except that if the source for that information is the CIA, his poll numbers might actually go up.
But, has Kerry won too easily? Ironically, John Edwards may be the best thing for John Kerry the next few weeks.
The only problem with a complete walkover is that the media is going to lose interest. Kerry is hot right now and he wants to keep that momentum as long as he can. But if there is no race, Kerry will get less coverage over the next couple of months and that means that he’ll have to spend money to stay on the radar screen. Howard Dean’s last stand (sort of) in Wisconsin will help for the next week. But I think Dean will be done after he gets clobbered in Wisconsin.
That leaves Edwards. Clark is out and the rest of the candidates are jokes. If Edwards stays, as he has been largely throughout, positive in his campaigning, Kerry is probably better off if Edwards can stay close enough to him to pass the laugh test. It will keep the media hungry and talking about a Super Tuesday showdown. Kerry can still just attack Bush and get coverage and then Kerry can go out and win Super Tuesday in a landslide and get yet another big bump. But how big of a story Kerry’s Super Tuesday landslide is (because that is a given) will probably depend more on Edwards than Kerry.
Read Less...
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