Rick's Cafe Americain

Contrary to popular accounts, Helmut is not dead.  He joined me at Ferrari’s semi-regular game along with repeat players Coach, Simon, Swish and the late-arriving Christian.

Game story, shout-out and a pokerstars update: Read it now!

In response to the Ugarte’s comment implying that I may have been calling with my flush draw when the pot odds did not justify, I will put forth my rationale and let Ugarte’s faithful readers decide. 

Before the flop, I was in with K8 of hearts.  I don’t recall how many pre-flop callers there were, I am virtually certain it was more than Ugarte and I (a little help here Ugarte?), but we’ll take the conservative approach and assume that it was just he and I.  My point will still be illustrated.  Before the flop, therefore, the pot was at $7, (three dollars in blinds and Ugarte and my calls—thoughit was probably at least $8, just small blind coming in, or $10 with one more caller).  After the flop, which produced two hearts, queen high, and no pairs for me, Ugarte bets and anyone else who might have been in folds.  Ugarte is in first position in our heads up play.

Therefore, here it is $2 bet to me for a $9 pot.  4.5 to 1.  Not bad when the chances of a flush draw are 4.1 to 1 with one card and 1.9 to 1 with two cards.  But let’s look at the implied odds, which is the real analysis.  If I am going to call in the first instance, I am going to call to the river. 

Presumably, Ugarte will bet again if a heart does not fall on the turn, so I am going to have to pay $6 to see it to the river.  If I don’t get a heart on the river, I, of course, fold, so $6 is all I am risking by staying in.  I stand to win either $21 or $17 on my $6 risk.  If Ugarte bets on the turn and then, on the river, bets (as he did) after the third heart falls, I raise and, knowing Ugarte, he probably calls me.  Under that scenario I risk $6 to win $21 on the implied odds, which is a 3.5 to 1 return on a 1.9 to 1 bet (of course the pot is probably $3 higher, which means a 4 to 1 return).  If, after the third heart falls on the river, Ugarte checks, I would then bet and I would expect him to call me.  In that scenario I am risking $6 to $17 on the implied odds, which is a 2.83 to 1 return compared to a 1.9 to bet.  There is also a small chance that Ugarte will fold if he checks to me on 5th street (knowing his game and his knowledge of my game I find this scenario pretty unlikely), but even in that situation, I still plan to win $13 on a $6 bet (probably $16 if the other pre-flop callers are included), which still gives 2.17 to 1 odds on a 1.9 to 1 bet.

(cont)

(see start above—character limits)

But in fairness to Ugarte, he said it was the turn call that was my mistake (my analysis of the hand was from the flop and once I bet there I was committing myself on the above analysis, but we’ll do it his way).  On the turn, if memory serves, an ace fell giving Ugarte two pair and killing any chance my king had of being the overcard (after the flop, of course, a king calling, probably gives me the best hand which actually gave me potentially three more outs, but I am not even counting those in this analysis).  At this point, when Ugarte bets $4 into me the pot is at $15 (we now add in my $2 post flop bet because we are examining the closed universe of the turn call at all of my prior bets are sunk costs – and, of course, the pot was probably $18).  It requires me $4 to call.  If no heart falls I, of course, fold.  If a heart falls, I stand to win $19 or $23 (same analysis as above, $22 or $26 if you add the other pre-flop callers).  If we split the difference and call it an average of $21 that is a 5.25 to one reward against a 4.1 to 1 bet.

Of course, all of this analysis discounts the possibility of Ugarte holding Ax of hearts.  This is possible, but not all that likely, especially giving my read of Ugarte.  Also, I made my read on whether he had Ax of hearts after the flop, I wasn’t reanalyzing that mental call on the turn.  Further, as stated above, I am not counting in the positive odds of the turn being a king and probably giving me the best hand there.  In my mind, when I analyzed this after the flop, I figured those odds cancelled out the “getting screwed by the ace of hearts” odds.  Naturally, there are also scenarios where a heart falls on the turn, but those are mostly good for me.

Personally, I don’t think it is a close call.  But, then again, Ugarte partially defended Mike Martz in private conversations.  http://www.rickblaine.com/index/P85/

By the way, I was sick

Sounds like I missed an interesting game… Ugarte has my cell phone number now… so I’m only a subway ride away from the next open seat! Looking forward to playing a few hands with some (if not all) of you! See ya, Pauly