Are you ready for some football? College Football!!!The season starts tomorrow and while my interest in most sports has waned since my teen years, my passion for college football has only increased. While it may sound odd in wake of the many scandals and the ever increasing influence of money, the purity of the game is one of the things that attracts me. There is nothing quite like going to Ohio Stadium or the Big House with more than 100,000 fans sitting (or standing) on BLEACHERS, to watch the greatest rivalry in sports. Below you will find analysis, predictions and previews on the upcoming season and, of course, Buckeye talk.
Major changes in College Football
The 2004 season brings yet another BCS formula and also instant reply to the Big Ten. The BCS has been a comedy of errors as they tweak the formula nearly every year. This year they have taken steps to simplify the process and have essentially handed things back to the pollsters as the formula will be 1/3 AP poll, 1/3 Coaches poll and 1/3 a computer average. Since the AP and Coaches polls usually tend to mirror one another, don’t expect the computers to have much sway. It would be nice if this renewed emphasis means the pollsters will take their jobs more seriously, but don’t bet on it. Look for pre-season hype, “when” you lose, coaching assistants, blow out scores and high powered offenses to rule the rankings, while dominating defenses and ball control offenses get slighted, even though LSU last year and Ohio State in 2002 (not to mention NFL examples like the Patriots and Ravens) won national titles with bone crushing defense, not high octane offense.
The Big Ten has adopted instant reply, but there are no coaches challenges in this system. Whether to review or not will be decided from the booth. I predict there will be some good reversals, but at least one or two monster flubs where the booth “misses” an opportunity for review and some coach (JoePa) goes ballistic.
Ranking the BCS Conferences
How do I rank the conferences? First, I look at how many top tier and second tier teams the conference has. Top tier teams are legitimate top ten teams with a realistic chance of challenging for a title and second tier teams are top 25 teams or teams that could realistically challenge for a top 25 spot. Looking at things from that perspective alone clearly separates the top four conferences from the bottom two. Then, I look at relative strength of the top tier teams, how many second tier teams have a shot to challenge the big boys and overall conference depth. Without further adieu.
6. The Big East: No top tier teams and, realistically, only three teams that would have a chance of being middle of the pack in the other major conferences (West Virginia, Pitt and Boston College, with Syracuse, UConn and Rutgers being possible up and comers), with West Virginia probably the only one who might be able to manage a winning record in any other BCS conference other than the Pac-10. It is possible that some non-BCS conferences might be better than the Big Least this year. On the bright side, as a basketball conference, the Big East has no peers. Conf. winner: West Virginia.
5. The Pac-10: USC is world class and deserves all the hype, but the conference falls off the talent cliff after the Trojans. Out of Oregon, Oregon State, Washington St. and Cal, two will probably emerge as legitimate second tier schools, but that can’t measure up with the big four. Conf. winner: USC.
4. The Big 12: The Big 12 has two top tier teams in Oklahoma and Texas, but they lost some luster last year when seemingly unbeatable Oklahoma got crushed by Kansas St. (who then got dominated by Ohio State) and then overwhelmed by LSU to end the season, while Texas, fresh off another spanking from Oklahoma, lost to unheralded Washington St. in its bowl game. Oklahoma will have a chip on its shoulder this year and Texas always has tons of talent, so you still have to consider them top tier teams; however, Texas has to prove it can compete with Oklahoma, let alone beat them, before they can really be taken seriously. Kansas St. is a legitimate second tier team that has threatened the last few years to crack into the top tier, but I think they take a step back this year. Missouri and Nebraska are other squads that get press as second tier teams, and they may be, but I doubt either can be more than an edge of the top 25 team, at best. The Big 12 has a couple other solid teams capable of pulling upsets and also some garbage pickers like Baylor and Iowa St. A very good conference, but clearly a step behind the next three. Oklahoma is a strong title contender. Conf. winner: Oklahoma (over K. State in the championship game).
3. The ACC: Now it gets hard and as the season shakes out these next three conferences could easily change positions. The ACC is the media darling as the strongest conference in America, but I don’t see it. Florida St. and Miami give the conference two legitimate top tier schools, but I don’t find either of these squads as scary as teams they have had the prior five years, especially Miami. Florida St. is probably the better of the two, but Miami has had their number for years and FSU has the harder schedule. Beyond the big two, the ACC is suddenly loaded with potential second tier schools, with Virginia Tech being imported and N.C. St., Maryland, Virginia and Clemson coming on in recent years. However, I see Virginia Tech and N.C. St. taking a step back (out of the top 25) and I think Virginia and Clemson are overrated (though Maryland is probably underrated). Georgia Tech, Wake Forest are solid teams that could pull upsets, while Duke and North Carolina are already looking forward to March Madness. A solid conference and, if I am wrong on my reads, could be the best conference in America. Conf. winner: Miami.
2. The Big Ten: With six teams ranked in both polls, the Big Ten leads all conferences. Ohio State and Michigan give the Big Ten two top tier teams that could make title runs. The Buckeyes have a young team (having had a record 14 players drafted last year) and should be lights out in 2005; however, with the addition of some super transfers and frosh, I believe Ohio State will have a top 5 defense again, while the previously anemic offense will be more explosive, which gives them a shot at running the table. But if the Buckeyes offensive line and running backs do not improve from last year and if the new quarterback is shaky, they may fall from the top ten. Michigan is loaded at wide receiver, O-Line and defense; however, they will be breaking in a new QB and RB. If those spots work out, Michigan is a serious title threat ― except that you can count on their coaches to blow one or two games they should win. Nevertheless, I have a feeling the Wolverines may show up in Columbus undefeated to tangle with the Buckeyes. Iowa gives the Big Ten a second tier team that has been on the edge of being a top tier team the last couple years. The Hawkeyes have questions again this year, but, they have had Michigan’s number of late and get the Buckeyes at home. If things break right, Iowa could steal the Big Ten title from the Big Boys and/or have a top ten finish. Minnesota is a recent addition to second tier status and they are looking to crack the top tier; however, I put them in the category of the Kansas States and Virginia Techs of recent years, they will win a bunch of games by gaudy scores, but they will lose to the top ten teams. Nevertheless, a dark horse. Wisconsin is another legitimate second tier team, that has disappointed the last few seasons, but could break out in a big way this year. Purdue has been a solidly consistent Top 25 team, has the best quarterback in the Big Ten and took media darling Georgia to overtime in last year’s bowl game. Flying under the radar with a favorable home schedule, they could make some noise this year. The Big Ten also has three other teams that, while not second tier, have legitimate bowl aspirations in Penn State, Michigan State and Northwestern. Finally, the dogs of the conference, Illinois and Indiana, round things out, though Illinois might have a chance to bounce back into a semi-respectable team. All in all, there are no weeks off in the Big Ten, unless you are playing Indiana. Conf. winner: Ohio State.
1. The SEC: LSU has clearly emerged as a clear national power and title contender after last season and most pundits rate Georgia one as well. I am not completely sold on the Bulldogs. They have yet to prove that they can beat the top teams and their struggles with Florida are legendary, but they are still a legitimate pre-season top ten team, if over-hyped at #3. Florida is also intriguing. I, and many others, think they have slipped a little and are a top level second tier team, but not a legitimate national power (remember, they got drubbed by Iowa in their bowl game). Others think they are a top tier team with outside title aspirations. Much the same is true for Tennessee, though they are more solidly entrenched in second tier status. After those four, things get a little more questionable in the SEC, though Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas and Mississippi all have the potential to be legitimate teams. Look for two or three of those teams to be solid and at least one to be a major disappointment. South Carolina is a team that could surprise and then Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State form the bottom tier of the conference, but none of those teams are true garbage feeders like the other conferences have. I give the SEC the slight edge over the Big Ten because LSU clearly deserves its lofty pre-season ranking, even if Georgia may not, the rest of the conference depth is similar to the Big Ten and no one in the SEC is as bad as Indiana. Conf. winner: LSU (over Georgia in the title game).
Most Overrated
1. West Virginia: The Mountaineers are ranked 10th or 11th in most preseason polls. However, they would be significant underdogs to all other top ten teams and many of the teams ranked behind them. They are a media darling solely because of a soft schedule and the fact that they are probably the best team in the Big East. Look for them to be embarrassed if they make it to a BCS bowl as the Big East representative (not a guarantee, and that alone demonstrates they are overrated).
2. Cal: #13 AP, #15 Coaches. They shocked USC last year and had a good season beating Virginia Tech by three in a 99 point bowl game. Yet they are still Cal and this ranking is more the result of the Pac 10 being down than Cal being this good. They might be an edge of the top 25 team, but no better.
3. The ACC: Another media darling. They deserve to be in the discussion for best conference in America and could prove it over the course of the season, but they don’t deserve being labeled by many media outlets as the clearly #1 conference.
4. Georgia: A legitimate top 10 team with title aspirations if they can have a great season, but they have to show me a lot more before they deserve the # 3 ranking the AP gives them ― admittedly, however, after USC, LSU and Oklahoma, a tie for #4 between Georgia, FSU, Miami, Texas, Michigan and Ohio State would probably be about right.
Not getting enough respect
1. The Big Ten: Yet again, the Big Ten is being written off by the media as not as good as the SEC, the Big 12 and now the ACC, despite six teams in the top 25. Hogwash.
Orange Bowl Prediction
Oklahoma over USC in the Orange Bowl. USC is a no brainer for the title game. They have, by far, the easiest schedule of the top 9 teams, with Virginia Tech on neutral turf possibly being their toughest game (Cal at home and Oregon St. on the road being the other contenders). In contrast, every other top 9 team plays one of the other top 9 teams. If USC loses more than once, there should be an investigation and, by starting off at #1, they are well positioned to absorb one loss (unless the pollsters actually take into account their weak schedule…look for USC to top the human, but not computer, polls all season, which could create some fun debates).
Oklahoma probably has the best chance to go undefeated of the other top 9 teams, with their toughest game being Texas, who they have absolutely owned in recent years. I see USC going into the Orange Bowl as a big favorite after crushing teams all year and getting upset.
Teams to watch out for. Michigan could just be nasty this year and they will want to get USC back for last year’s Rose Bowl. Ohio State has a good shot at navigating its season until Michigan if things gel right and we have the Wolverines in Columbus. If there are not two undefeated teams (and there usually are not), LSU will have a good claim for a spot if they navigate the SEC with one loss. Also, Florida St. and Miami open the season against each other, so even the loser can be well positioned if they can run the table after that. The only other teams to talk about are Georgia and West Virginia (simply b/c they play such a weak schedule). I would be shocked if some other team plays for the title this year.
Opening weekend
The only significant game this weekend is USC vs. Virginia Tech. I’d love to see Tech pull an upset, but look for USC to roll big.
Ohio State
For those of you still reading, it is time to talk about the Buckeyes. Look for OSU to have the scariest linebacking core in America and a stacked secondary and a solid D-Line. You can count on their defense being one of, if the best, in the country. Offensively, there are many questions. A young offensive line, a new quarterback, the underachieving Lydell Ross and solid but unspectacular wide receivers and tight ends. Nevertheless, I expect the offense to surprise this year and be much more productive than the last two seasons. I see Tressel loosening the reins, especially since he can’t rely on great punting this year. However, I also expect it to make more mistakes this year, something that has not happened the last two years. Unfortunately, I think those mistakes will cost the Buckeyes in at least one game pre-Michigan this year.
Finally, remember the name Ted Ginn Jr. He will start his splash this year and he is going to be special (as a DB, returner and part-time WR) before all is said and done.
