Where the Battle of Algiers rages on ...Rick's Cafe Americain

Mug shot from The Smoking Gun. Waving goodbye, poorly cropped out of the NYT.

Although I would certainly prefer Condi to be VP than Secretary of State, I hardly think Condoleezza Rice is the best choice to represent (politically or metaphorically) the women or the African Americans of this country. But it is Karol’s typically mangled logic that really bruises my forehead:

It’s more of a want for Bush (and Condi) to make history in this way. The first black person, the first woman, the first single person in some time to hold the office of Vice President. It would break through conceptions on what a president or vice-president must be. That’s something that makes me smile every time I think about it.

Now, obviously, one has nothing to do with the other, except to illustrate the priorities of those closest to the top of our society.  How much have the “Rangers” and titans of industry who raised over $3 million in 6 days to fund Bush’s inauguration contributed to aid the tsunami victims?

And to compare apples at least to oranges, why is it that we were so quick to pledge billions upon billions to the invasion of a country that posed no threat to us?  Even if you believe that the invasion was worth it to get Saddam out of power because he was such a bad guy, we’ve spent almost $150 billion so far on the Iraqi invasion.  Saddam Hussein may be responsible for the deaths of up to 1 million Iraqis.  The earthquake already has claimed upwards of 50 million thousand lives, and millions more will suffer in the aftermath.  That’s $150,000 per Iraqi killed by Saddam Hussein, as compared to less than $700 per person killed by the tsunamis.

Economic damage is estimated at at least $13 billion.  That’s less than 1% of what Bush wants to spend to “reform” social security.

I’m all for making sure that the Baby Boomers and their kids aren’t someday robbed of their retirement savings decades from now, and everyone likes a good party (others prefer a good war), but wouldn’t the “compassionate” thing to do, given that the aftermath of the earthquake is significantly more “imminent” than was the threat posed by Hussein’s Iraq, be to give, as an initial contribution, at least more than .02% of what we’ve already spent on invading a country based on faulty intelligence?

Perhaps George W. Bush expects the victims of the tsunamis to invest the $35 million towards their retirement.  We need to contribute more, now, and that should be Bush’s number one priority.  Otherwise, I hope he has a nice inauguration while millions of preventable deaths ring in the new year on his watch.

See you in a month.

President Bush has announced his plan to select Dr. W. David Hager to head up the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) Reproductive Health Drugs Advisory Committee. The committee has not met for more than two years, during which time its charter lapsed. As a result, the Bush Administration is tasked with filling all eleven positions with new members. This position does not require Congressional approval. The FDA’s Reproductive Health Drugs Advisory Committee makes crucial decisions on matters relating to drugs used in the practice of obstetrics, gynecology and related specialties, including hormone therapy, contraception, treatment for infertility, and medical alternatives to surgical procedures for sterilization and pregnancy termination.

We are concerned that Dr. Hager’s extreme religious beliefs may color his assessment of technologies that are necessary to protect women’s lives, and preserve and promote women’s health. Hager’s track record of using religious beliefs to guide his medical decision-making makes him a dangerous and inappropriate candidate to serve as chair of this committee. Critical drug public policy and research must not be held hostage by antiabortion politics. Members of this important panel should be appointed on the basis of science and medicine, rather than politics and religion. American women deserve no less.

You can make your feelings known by writing directly to George. I’m sure Karl will read it to him. And they will laugh…

While I was revising this, I found this article about the sad intersection of religion and reproductive health over at Fantasy Life. Even more reason to wince over doctors like Hager guiding federal policy.

To my mind, Social Security is a singularly flawed system.  As a philosophical matter, I reject the notion that the government can or should force me to plan for my own retirement, much less direct how and how much.  As a practical matter, it has become what has to be one of the worst retirement plans ever.  Social Security’ actuaries estimate that, for a single male worker born in 2000 with average earnings, the real annual return on his currently-scheduled contributions to Social Security will be only 0.86 percent. For someone like me, who makes more than the FICA maximum, the expected return is actually negative.  Nor are the benefits nearly enough for any wage-earner to maintain his/her standard of living – although it was never intended to do that; it was always supposed to be a supplement.

President Bush has called Social Security “the single most successful government program in American history”.  He has campaigned hard in both presidential elections on his goal of “strengthening” social security.  However, he has yet to set forth a detailed plan for doing so.  Indeed, all we really know is that he plans to “privatize” at least part of it, allowing contribution into diversified investment accounts at least similar to 401(k)’s.

“Strengthening” Social Security, as President Bush proposes, will not be cheap.  In order to ensure that benefits continue to be paid, even as contributions are diverted into personal accounts, “transitional” costs of anywhere from .$500 billion to over $1 trillion dollars, depending on how the system is reformed, and how high a return the investor is guaranteed.  President Bush has not yet disclosed where he plans to get this money (although Edward Crane of the Cato Institute suggests getting at least some of it by ending corporate welfare, which I think is a damn good idea.  Otherwise, we’ll have to borrow the money.  Maybe Iraq will lend it to us.

What is clear is that something must be done, and the sooner the better.  The first of the baby boomers will start collecting Social Security in 2008 – imagine that a tired, aging mare who can barely feed her two foals suddenly gives birth to two more.  Not that I think privatization of the Social Security system is a good idea.  To the contrary, I think that the Social Security system as we know it should be dismantled.

The current system, which is headed for fiscal collapse anyway, helps no one.  Those who can afford to put money aside for retirement do not need the government’s help, nor should the government interfere.  Those who cannot afford to plan for their own retirements do not benefit from Social Security.  Most pay more in payroll taxes (FICA) than they do in income tax, and a disproportionate number of poor people, who tend to have shorter life spans, never even get to see benefits.  The system deprives the poor of much-needed income, without even offering them a decent return – if any – on their “investment”.  Hand me my .30-.30, maw.

I’d rather see the “nanny state” replaced by the “welfare state”.  If Social Security were converted into a retirement fund to help only those who really need it – for example, those whose income before retirement was insufficient to allow for significant retirement saving, and who have no children capable of supporting them – I believe we could help a lot more people while greatly decreasing the cost of the program.

When I was a kid, my parents gave me an allowance and taught me the importance of fiscal responsibility.  If I spent all my money during the week (say, on snacks at school), and then wanted to go to the movies on the weekend, my parents would not give me money.  In this way I learned to live within my means and manage my money.  If the goal is to encourage the growth of an “ownership society”, to increase personal choice and responsibility, then I believe the government needs to take a page from my parents’ book.  Freedom of choice means facing the consequences of our choices.  Let’s put Social Security out of its misery.

One thing that I have been thinking about since the election coverage on Nov. 2 was the difference between the exit polls and vote counts. Exit polling has proven itself to be quite accurate over the years, and it disturbs me that not one news organization has questioned the reliability of the vote count given the exit polls. Especially when you consider all the writing before the election about concern over the electronic voting which does not provide a means of verifying its results. I’m not the only one who heard theories about this being the perfect way for a party to “steal” the election. Where was all that concern after the election?

Because there is no way to verify the vote count against ballots electronically cast, there is only one way to judge if the count was accurate: exit polls. Yet not even an eyebrow was raised when the count and polls did not match. Rather than ask the question, the discrepancy was ignored and exit polls were dismissed as notoriously unreliable. This is untrue, and struck me more as a way for the media to regain the public’s trust. I was watching CNN primarily, and they kept repeating that they would not rely on those unreliable exit polls, so as to avoid another Florida projection disaster. Instead, they would wait to call races based upon a combination of voting returns, exit polls (huh?), statistical analysis, and their own expertise.

Blitzer and company kept repeating that they would not rely on exit polls again, continually reassuring the public that the media could be trusted because this time they would not rely on exit polls. It became clear to me that what CNN (and others) were doing was turning exit polls into a scapegoat for their “wrong” Florida projection, so they could regain their credibility. It’s easier to get folks to trust you if you provide a concrete reason why you were wrong, then assure them that factor has been removed from the equation. Rather than admit that they made a mistake in 2000, and gaining the trust back the long, hard way of simply being right in the future. Having turned exit polls into the scapegoat, the media is forced to ignore and leave uninvestigated potential stories on inaccurate vote counts or fraud based upon the fact that the stories find their genesis in information from exit polls.

I have seen exit polls being referred to as unreliable in many sources since the election, and I just don’t buy it. Exit polling has used consistently in the past to call elections. This includes 2000, regardless of what folks say about Florida (remember, exit polls had Gore ahead and since the election any credible news account agrees that Gore would have won if a recount was conducted). Because the exit poll was more accurate than the vote count, should not tarnish exit polls as unreliable. That the media will not face the unpopular reality that Gore would have won Florida if a recount was conducted is not reason to disregard what exit polls tell us.

The news coverage itself reveals the inconsistency in its position. Although they repeat that exit polls are unreliable, the polls form the basis of countless interest pieces and are still used as a factor in the analysis for projecting election results. Both the news organizations and the political parties rely on exit polling to determine what issues were important to voters, as well as the demographic split of the voters.

This is not to say I am convinced that the vote count is not accurate. I am troubled that no questions have been raised in light of the exit polling.

This article provides additional support for the idea of conducting a hand recount. I don’t want a long public drama. It is better to just assume that we have four more years under the Bush regime until we know differently, but I wouldn’t mind seeing the results of a computer audit or a hand recount.

Just because I want to, you know, save the Union from collapse.

I arrived on Saturday night. I rented a compact car (Dodge Neon, anyone?) because I didn’t want to spend too much money - and because (car rental tip) airport rentals NEVER have compacts. It is an almost certain free upgrade - and if it isn’t, you probably aren’t going to have to pay any more for the midsize than you would have at the time you made your reservation. How Jewish of me. Anyway, as per the plan, they didn’t have any compact cars at the Tampa Airport Dollar Rent-A-Car. And so I ended up driving a Dodge Grand Caravan. This too, was a sign, as it was clear that whatever I asked for, I would get the exact opposite. For the record, the Caravan handles rather well.

On Sunday, I had to drive to St. Petersburg for the final Lawyer’s for Kerry meeting. I finally got my precinct assignment, though I knew it would be a low-priority precinct. They had assigned the precincts in order of importance, and had simply forgotten to assign a precinct to me. (Can the jokes before they start; they didn’t know me well enough for it to have been on purpose.) This meeting marked the fourth time in which I heard the same lecture on Florida election law. I’ll be honest, people: everything I needed to know about Florida election law I learned in the thirty-minute online lesson I took three weeks ago. As a non-Florida resident I WASN’T EVEN ALLOWED TO BE AN ON-SITE POLL WATCHER. I knew I was going to have to stand on the far side of the 50-foot electioneering barrier, so any excess Florida law knowledge will only become useful if I end up on Jeopardy after they have run out of interesting. In addition to the tedium of hearing everything for the fourth time, I had to suffer through a room of lawyers asking questions about issues either spectacularly narrow or mindbendingly obvious that I finally had to shout over the crowd to stop asking questions until the lecture was over—so I could leave before they asked them.

On Monday, Zinester and I went canvassing for Kerry in St. Petersburg. It was a lovely neighborhood. Private homes and manicured lawns. We were given 40 addresses in the neighborhood that were known Democrats and were supposed to have been scrubbed of known Bush supporters. We were asked to encourage early voting, but to push people to vote. The former proved impossible and the latter was all too easy. If you hadn’t already made a commitment to early vote, the reports of interminable lines were a huge turnoff. On the other hand, every single person we spoke to—aged 22 to 95—had already voted or was gung ho to get out and vote on Wednesday. They were almost to a person enthusiastic about Kerry’s chances and really, really hated President Bush.

But there were signs here also. The 95-year-old was crabby when she got to the door. She said that she was “very busy” (what does a 95-year-old do?) and, when she found out who we were, abruptly said that she fully intended to vote but she “wasn’t voting for Kerry.” Also, four ‘Kerry houses’ had Bush lawn signs (we didn’t knock; I assume that they voted anyway).

On Election Day, I got to the polls at 6:45. The line was around the corner. I wasn’t allowed in, but I introduced myself to the folks from the Sherriff’s office and set up a chair just outside the 50 foot line. With my “Florida Voting Rights Attorney” hat and Kerry/Edwards pin, I was conspicuous but not intrusive. As I suspected, I quickly realized that I wouldn’t have to do much anyway. The lines for precincts 341 and 357 were almost entirely white, and any challenge-shenanigans were expected to occur in minority precincts. Not only were there no shenanigans, the operation was seamless. In the morning, the sherriffs were sending people to me if they didn’t know their precinct so I could call the Supervisor of Elections and get it for them (the Pinellas county office was remarkably efficient) and I probably helped over 20 people get to the correct precinct. When the clerk found out that I was a Kerry volunteer, she asked the sherriffs to stop, but they were apologetic when they told me they had to stop. It was no big deal - the clerk had the same phone numbers that I did, and would call the same person - and since the morning rush was over I didn’t even really provide a material time advantage. I saved a bunch of people a lot of time in the morning, though. So I guess I still feel good about the work I did.

Random Observations

(1) I thought that the precincts I saw would be very evenly split based on people’s reactions when they saw my Kerry pin. I had no idea how right I was.

(2) The best political shirt I saw all year was on a first time voter. I’ve owned a camera phone for four days, so I forgot to save the picture, but her t-shirt said “BARELY LEGAL ... but old enough to vote”. She looked 15; thinking about having sex with her is prosecutable in 24 states.

(3) There was a bright yellow minivan parked in the best spot in the lot with the phrase “Banana Bread for the Troops” stenciled on the doors. The website bananabreadforthetroops.com was stenciled on the rear window, but there doesn’t appear to be a website there. You can, however, get their banana bread recipe here.

(4) A young kid, probably around 22, asked me to find his precinct. When I called the Supervisor of Elections, they told him that his registration was inactive. It was probably because he moves around a lot, and they got no response from him when they tried to contact him at his old address. His reaction? “This is bullshit. I’m not a felon. The only felony charge was knocked down to a misdemeanor.” He wanted to vote for Kerry.

Now, if you will excuse me, I am going to curl up into a ball and cry.

1. Our air, water and food will become increasingly contaminated, with devastating health consequences in the coming decades.

2. The income gap will continue to widen, jobs will continue to be outsourced, and class conflict will become more pronounced.

3. The conflict in Iraq will increase in intensity as the Arab world begins to rally around the Iraqi insurgents.  More Americans will die in Iraq than died in 9/11.

4. As Bush & Co. continue to funnel resources into “taking the fight to the enemy”, our domestic security will get even worse, leaving us exposed to another terrorist attack.

5. Bush & Co. will threaten military action against a third country, probably Syria, possibly Iran.  This will further galvanize the Arab world against the U.S.

6. There will be an attempt to detonate a nuclear device in either Israel or the United States.

7. The Democrats in Congress will be even bigger pussies than they were after 9/11 and George W. Bush will appoint at least 2 ultra-conservative judges to the Supreme Court.  Separation of Church and State and Separation of Powers will no longer function as they once did in our democracy.

8. The internet will become the primary source for news—an increasing amount of TV coverage will be coverage of what the “internets” are saying—and this will result in an electorate even more polarized and misinformed than they are now.

9. We will lose England’s support in the Coalition of the Willing.

10. No matter what happens, George W. Bush will not admit , take the blame for, or attempt to correct mistakes.

An informal lawn sign review had the territory I was covering - a middle-class white neighborhood - mostly Kerry, but with strong pockets of Bush support. And two people told me that they had their Kerry signs stolen. We did see BC04 signs in the front lawn of three Kerry households we were supposed to approach (so the list wasn’t perfect), and one crotchety 95 year-old woman told us that she didn’t need a ride to the polls and that she was “not going to vote for Kerry.” I stole her cane and we left.

After finishing our list, Zinester and I went to Siam Garden for lunch. The softshell crab in garlic and black pepper sauce was very good. And the restaurant was pro-Kerry to boot. An elderly couple sitting in the first booth thanked us for the work we were doing. Another pair of Kerry volunteers was eating in the back. The owner of the restaurant asked if we had been to the rally in Tampa last night (we hadn’t) and told us that she was too busy greeting Trick-or-Treaters. There is a lot of love for Kerry in these parts - much more than I expected. Bush has his fans also, and plenty of them, but Kerry has a lot of public support in Pinellas County.

Fingers crossed for a celebration tomorrow.

Go Kerry!